The introduction of crypto-related spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States has had a significant impact on the supplies of Bitcoin and Ethereum on centralized exchanges. Recent data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges have dropped to 11.6%, marking the lowest level since December 2017. Similarly, Ethereum balances are at 10.6%, the lowest since October 2015.
Market experts attribute the decreasing exchange balances to the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of ETF products for Bitcoin and 19-b filings for Ethereum. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs has led to the accumulation of 857,700 BTC, valued at $58.5 billion, in just five months. ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC have seen substantial asset acquisition, with BlackRock leading at around $20 billion.
Even though spot Ethereum ETFs have not yet started trading, there have been significant withdrawals of 777,000 ETH, amounting to approximately $3 billion, from exchanges following the SEC’s approval. The anticipation of Ethereum ETFs and the option to stake ETH have both influenced the decline in exchange balances. Nansen reports that 32.8 million ETH, equivalent to 27% of its total supply, are currently staked to support the network.
With the ongoing trend of decreasing exchange balances, experts speculate that a supply crunch could be on the horizon for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Analysts warn investors to prepare for a “supply squeeze” and expect potential significant movements in the market. Historically, when digital assets are withdrawn from exchanges, it indicates a willingness to hold onto the assets rather than sell, reflecting a bullish sentiment and expectations of future growth.
A supply squeeze resulting from the declining availability of Bitcoin and Ethereum on exchanges could have a substantial impact on prices. By limiting the available supply, it could potentially lead to significant price increases if the current accumulation and holding patterns persist. Investors are advised to monitor the situation closely and be prepared for potential market volatility as a result of the changing supply dynamics in the crypto space.
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