It has been confirmed by VanEck Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, that the company’s Solana spot ETF proposal is actually a bet on Donald Trump winning the US presidency. The application deadline for VanEck is in March 2025, putting it well past the US Presidential elections in November. This raises questions about the company’s strategy and the risks associated with such a decision.
Analysts believe that the approval odds for the Solana ETF proposal are “near zero” if a Democrat wins the election and Joe Biden remains in office. On the other hand, if Trump secures the victory, the odds are “better… but not guaranteed.” This uncertainty adds a layer of complexity to the proposal and could have significant implications for the company’s future.
One major hurdle for the potential Solana ETF is the lack of a futures market on CME. This stands in contrast to spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which gained regulatory approval partly due to the existence of a futures market. Grayscale has argued that surveillance sharing agreements similar to those in place for CME Bitcoin futures could be sufficient for a spot ETF, but the SEC has yet to provide a clear explanation for treating spot Bitcoin ETFs differently.
With the recent approval of spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, some believe that VanEck may not need to demonstrate a CME futures market for its Solana ETF. However, Bloomberg analysts caution that new leadership at the SEC or even an act of Congress may be necessary for approval. Additionally, ongoing securities lawsuits against exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken could further complicate the approval process.
VanEck’s Solana spot ETF proposal raises a number of questions and uncertainties. From betting on political outcomes to regulatory hurdles and approval odds, the future of the proposal remains uncertain. As the industry continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see how these factors play out and what the implications are for the company and the broader digital assets market.
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