Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Rekt Capital recently shared an interesting insight about Bitcoin’s price trend. He highlighted how the current movement of the crypto asset mirrors a historical price action that occurred during a bull cycle eight years ago. This revelation indicates the potential for significant growth in the coming months, drawing parallels to the 2016 bull cycle where Bitcoin witnessed a remarkable growth of nearly 3,000% after the Bitcoin Halving event.
Rekt Capital also delved into his previous analysis of Bitcoin’s post-Halving movement, referring to it as the “Post-Halving Danger Zone.” He pointed out that Bitcoin is currently within this zone, specifically noting the negative movement below the Re-Accumulation Range Low. This pattern is reminiscent of the 2016 cycle where a similar move below the re-accumulation range occurred, albeit with a slight deviation of 6% in 2024 compared to 17% in 2016.
In 2016, Bitcoin experienced a significant -11% decline about 21 days after the Halving before reversing towards an upward trajectory. Drawing from this historical data, Rekt Capital suggested that if there is downside volatility near the Re-Accumulation Range Low in this cycle, Bitcoin could potentially turn bullish within the next 10 days. Despite the approaching end of the Post-Halving “Danger Zone,” Rekt Capital cautioned that negative volatility might persist around the $60,600 Range Low based on 2016 data.
The analyst also highlighted the significance of a Danger Zone preceding the Halving event, where past Pre-Halving retracements have often commenced. He noted that these retracements typically occur between 14 and 28 days before the event, aligning with the current cycle’s behavior. The first pre-Halving retrace of -18% occurred approximately 30 days before the Halving, resembling the timeline of the 2016 cycle which saw a start 28 days prior to the event. This similarity led Rekt Capital to anticipate a potential danger zone post-Halving.
However, the retracement from the recent all-time high has been more profound and prolonged compared to previous cycles, spanning several weeks. Despite this, the analyst expressed confidence in the possibility of Bitcoin reaching a bottom following this extended retracement period. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price reflected a positive sentiment, recording a 0.43% increase to $64,126 in the past day, accompanied by a 0.50% rise in market cap and a significant 24.43% surge in trading volume within the last 24 hours.
The analysis by Rekt Capital provides valuable insights into Bitcoin’s current price trends by drawing comparisons with historical data. While the mirroring of past patterns suggests potential growth opportunities in the future, the presence of danger zones and prolonged retracement periods underscores the inherent risks associated with cryptocurrency investments. As investors navigate the volatile market conditions, conducting thorough research and exercising caution remain crucial in making informed investment decisions.
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